Everyone keeps repeating the same script: the four-year cycle, the predictable halving pump, the tidy rise and fall of each crypto era.
But this time actually looks different. And that’s because we didn’t have any predictable halving pump, nor any altseason for that matter.
Bitcoin just ripped higher off the lows in the middle of a major war in the Middle East — something that historically crushes risk assets rather than lifts them. Instead of collapsing, BTC held its ground and bottomed around $60K before buyers stepped in aggressively last month.
That kind of price behavior doesn’t happen by accident. It usually signals structural demand underneath the market. It can also just mean that sometimes there are just no more coins left to sell – and only fiat left to purchase.
Bearishness reached a true crescendo at the lows. Sentiment was wrecked and people quickly became defensive. Retail is broke — plain and simple. Higher rates and Powell’s tightening cycle drained liquidity while everyday costs surged after COVID. Risk appetite evaporated. Not to mention, retail also sells the bottom. Every single time.
But markets don’t bottom when conditions are comfortable. They bottom when exhaustion sets in.
What we’re likely seeing now is a rough secondary phase of the cycle — the kind that shakes conviction before the real expansion begins. If liquidity begins to return and positioning flips, the next move could be violent. And I mean violently upwards.
Macro conditions are already shifting. ISM is turning positive and liquidity conditions are improving. The CLARITY Act currently sits around a 72% probability on Polymarket, which would remove a major overhang for the industry.
Add the political layer: Trump will not allow markets to dip into the midterms. This is his only lever as his tariffs and the Iran war have been largely unpopular to the American public.
My base case:
BTC $190K
ETH $8,500
by September 2026.
Hot take: Elon’s X Payments platform may spark a “neobank season.” Watch infrastructure tied to that shift — especially Plasma ($XPL), which also has backing from Tether.
And when this happens, the four year cycle theorists will be proven incorrect and be forced to buy the top.
Good luck chasing.
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